OK, because I missed Monday-Wednesday with job-hunting stuff, I'm going to write this in one shot. Wish me luck
Oh, and
even though I nailed Pittsburgh last year as the champs, it was pure luck. All picks are still guaranteed to lose money at your bookie.
Houston Texans
The Skinny: There are a lot of changes with this team. Dom Capers and crew are gone. Charlie Casserly is gone after missing both Reggie Bush and Vince Young. In steps former Denver Broncos offensive Coordinator(and Texas A&M alumnus) Gary Kubiak, who will most likely install a similar offense to Mike Shanahan's in Denver.
Position-by-positionQuarterbackStarter: David Carr still has a great arm and leadership skills, but like every single year, it remains to be seen if he can get the necessary protection.
Grade: B-Depth: Former Dolphin QB Sage Rosenfels has taken very few snaps in an NFL game
Grade: DRunning BackStarter: With Domanick Davis out for the season, Wali Lundy gets the first crack at the starting job
Grade: DDepth: Vernand Morency is the only healthy backup at the moment.
Grade: D+Wide recieverStarters: Adding Eric Moulds was a coup for the Texans, he brings some experience alongside Andre Johnson.
Grade: ADepth: Depleted by the loss of Corey Bradford,
Grade: C-Tight EndStarter: For now, it looks like the Texans will go with some combination of Jeb Putzier and Mark Bruener unless Rookie Owen Daniels makes a huge impact.
Grade: CDepth: Well, at least they have 3 tight ends they think can play
Grade: COffensive LineStarters: This was the number one need for the 4th consecutive offseason and the Texans lack-of-braintrust still failed to improve the position.
Grade: FReserves: If the starters are an F, what grade do you think the guys who couldn't beat them out get? That right...
Grade: FDefensive LineStarters: Say what you want about Mario Williams, he may just turn out to be a quality 4-3 DE. Also with the Transition to the 4-3, last year's first rounder Travis Johnson should break out.
Grade: C+Depth: N.D. Kalu, who's more of a 3-4 end, could see some playing time, but none of the other defensive linemen are all that impressive
Grade: CLinebackerStarters: Morlon Greenwood had 112 tackles last year at OLB, and Rookie DeMeco Ryans might help solidify the inside. Who plays opposite these two is the big question mark.
Grade: B-Depth: DaShon Polk had 93 tackles last year as an ILB, but was squeezed out with the move to the 4-3.
Grade: C+CornerbackStarters: Dunta Robinson still has upside, but the corner opposite, Phillip Buchanon, is coming off an ankle injury.
Grade: B-Depth: Dexter McCleon is past his prime and Lewis Sanders, is something of an unknown quantity
Grade: CSafetiesStarters: With Marcus Coleman off to the Cowboys (and on suspension), second year man C.C. Brown and third year man Glenn Earl will take over the starting roles
Grade: DDepth: The backup safeties are nothing to write home about.
Grade: FSpecialistsKicker: Kris Brown hit 76.5% of his field goals. Which means he roughly misses 1 out of every 4
Grade: DPunter: Chad Stanley's net average: 38.8
Grade: CReturners: Buchanon, if healthy will probably resume return duties
Grade: BCoachingHead Coach: We know Gary Kubiak is a top offensive playcaller, but the jury is still out on his game management skills.
Grade: B-Offensive Coordinator: Former Green Bay Packers head coach Mike Sherman is listed as the top offensive assistant, but make no mistake, this is Kubiak's offense, and it was part of the reason all those Denver backs got 1000 yards
Grade: ADefensive Coordinator: Richard Smith moves over from the Dolphins to take over the Defensive Coordinator position, it's hard to say how much of an impact he's going to have because he was basically running Nick Saban's scheme, and now he's got to devise one of his own.
Grade: DBest Record Guess: Without a better offensive line, Expect a repeat of last year. You can't scheme your way out of a bad offensive line.
2-14, dead last.The Rest of the South
Jacksonville: Jacksonville's record last year was better than 5 of the 8 division champions. Even with Jimmy Smith's retirement, there'
Best Guess: 11-5, Division ChampsIndianapolis: There's no reason to think that Indy won't win the division... What's that? Edgerrin James signed with the Cardinals? Oh, never mind. But, they still have enough pieces to be a playoff team.
Best Guess: 10-6, possible wild card.
Tennessee: The QB situation may be a mess, as the Titans are hesitant to play Vince Young too early, but there's still talent surrounding the eventual starter (whomever that may be). Still, the Titans defense needs work.
Best Guess: 5-11The rest of the AFC
AFC East| Team | Best Record Guess | The Skinny |
|---|
Miami
| 10-6
| I'm going to say what a lot of people want to say, but can't because they're afraid of offending Bill Belichick: The Dolphins have the pieces, the coaching, and the drive to overtake the Patriots this year. Sure we all know about Daunte Culpepper, but the key pickup no one is talking about is Will Allen.
|
New England
| 9-7
| If it weren't for Belichick and Tom Brady, this would be a 6-10 team. The Salary Cap toll is going to start showing this year, as the Patriots front office starts to find out how replaceable their parts really are.
|
New York Jets
| 6-10 | Chad Pennington is back, but there's no depth at running back, and implementing a 3-4 is probably the worst thing that could have happened to this defense.
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| Buffalo | 4-12 | Aside from Willis McGahee, this team is a mess on offense. And the defense could only stop the Houston Texans.
|
AFC North| Team | Best Record Guess | The Skinny |
|---|
| Pittsburgh | 13-3 | Even with Roethlisberger's bad offseason and the loss of Antwaan Randle-El, the defense is still there, Willie Parker is now the unquestioned starter, and Santonio Holmes will provide a nice complement to Hines Ward in time.
|
| Cincinnati | 11-5 | Surprise, Carson Palmer is back, but will he stay healthy? Everything else is in place for another playoff run.
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Baltimore
| 8-8 | Even though Steve McNair is the quarterback for this team, the once-vaunted defense is getting long in the tooth.
|
| Cleveland | 4-12 | The experts say this team could reach .500 this year. I say: Prove it.
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AFC West| Team | Best Record Guess | The Skinny |
|---|
Denver
| 10-6
| Yes, people will call for Jake Plummer's head, and the running back situation is uncertain, but Denver should still win the division this year. Some running back will get 1,000 yards, and the defense will be solid.
|
San Diego
| 9-7
| Even with the loss of Steve Foley for the season(gunshot from overzealous off-duty cop), the Chargers defense should still be decent. And Phillip Rivers has too many weapons around him to fail.
|
Kansas City
| 5-11
| When your tackle is Kyle Turley, your offensive line has issues. When you have no quality defensive linemen and you want to run Cover 2, your whole defense has issues.
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Oakland
| 4-12
| Art Shell: Great as a person, good coach. However, the alleged talent on defense is too old, they don't have a solid #1 running back, and Aaron Brooks is a bad QB.
|
AFC Playoffs
Division ChampsPittsburgh Steelers (13-3)
Jacksonville Jaguars (11-5)
Miami Dolphins (10-6)
Denver Broncos (10-6)
Wild CardsCincinnati Bengals (11-5)
Indianapolis Colts (10-6)
Wild Card RoundMiami over Indianapolis
Cincinnati over Denver
Division RoundMiami over Jacksonville
Pittsburgh over Cincinnati
AFC ChampionshipPittsburgh over Miami
Dallas Cowboys
The Skinny: Well, the Cowboys have had back-to-back quality drafts, and they have been very active in free agency. Now it's time for the Cowboys to produce
Position-by-positionQuarterbackStarter: Drew Bledsoe returns as the Cowboys' starter for 2006, and the veteran finally has some weapons to throw to. However, he's still past his prime as a quarterback and he still needs his offensive line to keep him upright.
Grade: C+Depth: Tony Romo seems to be getting better as a quarterback, and could be a quality backup, but let's not get ahead of ourselves and peg him as a future starter
Grade: B-Running BackStarter: Julius Jones will probably start. He has the speed to be a great NFL running back, but he hasn't shown the durability.
Grade: B+Depth: Marion Barber III is more of a power runner, but he should see a decent amount of action without the productivity dropping off too much.
Grade: A-Wide recieverStarters: All the talk has been about T.O., who should improve the Cowboys' passing numbers once he figures out that he's not going to win a media battle with Bill Parcells. Just don't forget about Terry Glenn.
Grade: A+Depth: Patrick Crayton was a surprise find for the Cowboys last year, and should give the Cowboys a decent 3rd reciever
Grade: DTight EndStarter: You can start the debate over whether the Cowboys' Jason Witten or the Eagles' L.J. Smith is the best tight end in the East. One thing's for sure, Witten means the Cowboys don't have to put a 4th reciever on the field in passing situations
Grade: A.Depth: Dan Campbell is gone, and the backups have little experience
Grade: BOffensive LineStarters: Two big holes at left guard, with Larry Allen departing for the Cardinals, and right tackle, which right now is a revolving door
Grade: C+Reserves: Well, Rob Pettiti and Al Johnson, who started last year, are backups this year. At least there's some experience
Grade: CDefensive LineStarters: With surprise performer Chris Canty, Jason Ferguson, and Marcus Spears expected to be the big contributors, this could be the best pure 3-4 defensive line in the NFC
Grade: ADepth: This is where it gets a little murky. Greg Ellis has moved to linebacker, and La'Roi Glover is gone. that leaves second year man Jay Ratliff and rookie Jason Hatcher to back up the ends
Grade: CLinebackerStarters: Ellis has proven he can make open-field tackles at linebacker, DeMarcus Ware is on track for a breakout season, and former Jaguar Akin Ayodele should help solidify the middle. Bobby Carpenter will eventually start.
Grade: ADepth: Rookie Kevin Burnett and Al Singleton could see some snaps.
Grade: BCornerbackStarters: Terrence Newman and Anthony Henry should make a great tandem
Grade: ADepth: Aaron Glenn has apparently lost a step, but should still be able to cover the other team's 3rd reciever. After that, it's questionable
Grade: CSafetiesStarters: Roy Williams is still Roy Williams. Keith Davis is not Roy Williams, but he's survived a bullet in the leg to win the starting job
Grade: B-Depth: Unfortunately, Marcus Coleman's suspension means that the Cowboys depth at this position is limited.
Grade: DSpecialistsKicker: Whatever you think of Mike Vanderjagt, he's a hell of a lot better than what the Cowboys had last year
Grade: APunter: Mat McBriar can
Grade: AReturners: Right now it's Tyrus Thompson and Terrence Newman, we'll see how it goes
Grade: CCoachingHead Coach: Bill Parcells is still one of the best coaches in the game. While he's faced with a unique player management challenge, he does have the upper hand in that .
Grade: AOffensive Coordinator: Tony Sparano is the de facto offensive coordinator, but Parcells will probably make most of the play calls. Don't expect anything fancy.
Grade: BDefensive Coordinator: Mike Zimmer had to adjust to calling a 3-4 defense last year and he passed the test with flying colors.
Grade: B+Best Record Guess: My head says I should be cautious, but there's too many pieces here not to go out and at least grab a piece of the NFC East crown.
11-5 and the divisionThe Rest of the East
Philadelphia: I'm sure Philly fan wants to see Donovan McNabb show he can put the T.O. thing behind him, and Donte Stallworth helps in that regard. And the defense is solid. The problem is, everyone else in the division made significant improvements.
Best Guess:10-6New York Giants: OK, Giants, now let's see what you can do when you play against a *real* schedule.
Best Guess: 8-8.Washington: With Clinton Portis expected to miss significant time, it's hard to see the Redskins having any net improvement. Besides, when Dan Snyder spends money on a free agent, they usually turn out to be busts.
Best Guess: 6-10, 3rd PlaceThe rest of the NFC
NFC North| Team | Best Record Guess | The Skinny |
|---|
Chicago
| 9-7 | Once again, NFL rules state that someone has to win the NFC North, and the defending division champs are probably in the best position with their defense and running game.
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Minnesota
| 8-8 | Hard to tell how things will go with this team, but Brad Johnson's veteran leadership should help things on the offensive side of the ball.
|
Detroit
| 6-10 | They can't get any worse than they were last year, but they're not even close to playoff bound.
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Green Bay
| 4-12 | Brett Favre can't save this team anymore.
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NFC South| Team | Best Record Guess | The Skinny |
|---|
Carolina
| 12-4 | The defense is back, Keyshawn Johnson should complement Steve Smith, and DeShaun Foster gets to carry the load full time.
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Tampa Bay
| 11-5 | OK, it's not the glory days of the Warren Sapp-led unit, but the Tampa defense is still very good, and they have some good offensive pieces
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Atlanta
| 9-7
| Another team that's hard to pinpoint. Michael Vick is back, the defense was upgraded in the offseason, but T.J. Duckett was traded and Warrick Dunn has never been a 30 carry per game back.
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| New Orleans | 1-15
| They need more pieces besides just Reggie Bush and Deuce McCallister.
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NFC West| Team | Best Record Guess | The Skinny |
|---|
| Seattle | 11-5 | Even without Steve Huchinson, defending NFC champ Seattle still has the core of what got them to the Super Bowl
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| Arizona | 6-10
| New Stadium, new quarterback, new running back, same old lousy Cardinals.
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| San Fransisco | 5-11
| Alex Smith has plenty of weapons to throw to now, but losing Julian Peterson and Andre Carter stunts the overall growth of this team.
|
| St. Louis | 4-12
| Yeah, Torry Holt is still there, as is Stephen Jackson, but it's going to take time to transition to the new offense. And Adam Archuleta may not help Washington, but his loss hurts St. Louis's D
|
NFC Playoffs
Division ChampsCarolina Panthers (12-4)
Seattle Seahawks (11-5)
Dallas Cowboys (11-5)
Chicago Bears (9-7)
Wild CardTampa Bay Buccaneers (11-5)
Philadelphia Eagles (10-6)
Wild Card RoundTampa Bay over Chicago
Dallas over Philadelphia
Division RoundSeattle over Dallas
Carolina over Tampa Bay
NFC ChampionshipCarolina over Seattle
Super Bowl Pick
It worked so well last year, we're going with Pittsburgh again this year.
Pittsburgh over Carolina
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