Wednesday, December 6, 2006

Season-ending Blogpoll

Season-ending Blogpoll:

1 Florida 25
2 Ohio State 24
3 Michigan 23
4 LSU 22
5 Louisville 21
6 Arkansas 20
7 Auburn 19
8 West Virginia 18
9 Southern Cal 17
10 Notre Dame 16
11 Wisconsin 15
12 Rutgers 14
13 Tennessee 13
14 Boise State 12
15 Virginia Tech 11
16 Wake Forest 10
17 Oklahoma 9
18 Brigham Young 8
19 California 7
20 Boston College 6
21 Georgia 5
22 Georgia Tech 4
23 TCU 3
24 Texas A&M 2
25 Houston 1

Dropped Out:

That's right, I have one-loss Florida over undefeated Ohio State and one loss Michigan. Why? Because Florida's going to win the national championship game and extinguish all doubt about whether or not it belongs. Neither Michigan or Ohio State has faced a defense with all year with the overall team speed of Florida.

If Michigan and Florida in some alternate universe were forced to play it off, the Florida speed would have neutralized Mario Manningham and company, and the quick penetration would have made Mike Hart a non-factor.

Then consider what will happen come December 8th. Ted Ginn and Anthony Gonzalez will be blanketed. As for Troy Smith, he's actually facing a defense where all the linebackers have NFL speed, so there's not going to be any escape for him.

And that's before we break down the unusual Florida offense vs. teams that have never faced it before. Oh, and did we mention that Florida's offense is faster than either defense?

So yeah, my answer for the Michigan-Florida controversy and my pick for the national championship game in one package.

Which brings up the reason why the BCS only produces a good matchup once in a blue moon, it's all determined by arguments like the one above, argued by a select elite of voters, rather than actual game play.

Anyway, you may have noticed that Oklahoma is lower than where most people have them, and Texas and Nebraska are noticeably absent from my ballot. Well, the Big 12 was way down this year, which was apparent from their major non-conference matchups (Texas lost to Ohio State, Nebraska lost to USC, Oklahoma lost to Oregon (Which OU still had a chance to win after the replay idiocy and blew it.), Texas Tech lost to TCU, Colorado lost to Georgia and Arizona State, etc.)

And the Big 12 followed that up with less than spectacular conference games where everyone knocked off everyone else. In any conference not named the SEC, upsets make you look weak. The only thing that would have saved the perception of this conference was for either Texas, Nebraska or Oklahoma to emerge as dominant. Yes, OU won, but that loss to Texas and Dallas in retrospect makes OU look bad, especially after the second half of Texas's season.

If you want to see where everyone else voted here's the final poll.

More on my life later

Tuesday, September 19, 2006

Week 4 Blogpoll Ballot

My Ballot:

1 Ohio State --
2 Auburn 1
3 Southern Cal 1
4 Georgia 2
5 Iowa 3
6 Louisiana State 4
7 Michigan 9
8 Florida 1
9 Louisville 2
10 Virginia Tech 2
11 West Virginia 2
12 Texas 2
13 Oregon 4
14 TCU 4
15 Alabama 1
16 Clemson 7
17 Florida State 12
18 Boise State 4
19 Michigan State 7
20 Tennessee 1
21 Penn State 5
22 Houston 3
23 South Carolina 3
24 Wisconsin 2
25 Arizona State 1

Dropped Out: Notre Dame (#7), Oklahoma (#15), Nebraska (#19), Pittsburgh (#24).

Flame away.

Monday, September 18, 2006

Officiating bad, teams were worse.

Perhaps the most famous blown call in sports in the last 25 years occured in Game 6 of the 1985 World Series, back when Major League Baseball was a legit sport. The St. Louis Cardinals were up 1-0 in the bottom of the 9th against cross-state rival Kansas City. Cardinals' closer Todd Worrell was 3 outs away from closing out the Kansas City Royals for good and sewing up a World title for St. Louis. Things looked great for the Cardinals as Jorge Orta led off by weakly grounding to Jack Clark, who tossed it to Todd Worrell for the first out, or so everyone thought.

Umpire Don Denkinger, however, called Orta safe. Replays showed otherwise.

For Cardinals fans, this is where the story stops. The next thing you usually hear them say is that the Royals went on to win the World Series.

What Cardinals fan conveniently forgets is that Cardinals catcher Darrell Porter misplayed a pop-up foul ball that would have gotten Steve Balboni out. He also neglects to mention that Porter later had a passed ball that advanced Balboni and Jim Sundberg into scoring position. Also, Cardinals fan will probably conveniently forget that Porter also failed to tag Sundberg on the game winning run after Andy Van Slyke made a perfect throw to him.

Oh, and even after all that, the Cardinals still could have won game 7 if John Tudor had displayed the form that made him a Cy Young runner-up in 1985. Instead, Tudor allowed 5 runs and 4 walks in 2 1/3 innings. The rest of the pitching staff wasn't any better, and the Cardinals bats didn't show up.

Yes, the Cardinals were the victims of a bad call. But to say that it determined the series is wrong. All the Cardinals had to do was get the last 3 outs of Game 6 after the bad call, or at least not choke in Game 7 and St. Louis is the World Champion.

Fast forward to Week 3 of the 2006 College Football Season, where the spirit of Don Denkinger is apparently alive and well in Eugene, Oregon and Auburn, Alabama.

With 1:12 left to go in the 4th Quarter and Oregon down 33-27 to Oklahoma, Oregon needed to recover an onside kick. Ball kicked, OU recovers. Except the officials, replay official included, rule that the ball belongs to Oregon, despite obvious evidence to the contrary.

Like Cardinals fans retelling the '85 series, the next thing you hear out of OU fan is that the call cost them the game as Oregon ended up winning 34-33.

Like Cardinals fans, they are leaving a few details out.

The Oklahoma defense is one of the most talented units in the nation, yet it allowed 501 yards total offense to Oregon, a team that had 379 total yards the previous week against Fresno State. 343 of the yards Oklahoma allowed were through the air, Fresno State only allowed the Ducks 240 yards passing.

Jonathan Stewart, Oregon's leading rusher, had 144 yards rushing on 6.3 yards/carry against Oklahoma. The entire Oregon team had 139 yards on 4.1 yards/carry against Fresno State.

Fresno State is probably a team Oklahoma could beat 9 times out of 10 on a neutral field and yet they had better defensive stats against the same Oregon team.

(Source for stats:; Oklahoma - Oregon Box Score; Oregon - Fresno State Box Score)

If Oklahoma had played up to it's ability level, Oregon isn't even in this ballgame with 1:12 left.

Like the Cardinals of 1985, the Sooners still had an opportunity to win despite the officials error. Garrett Hartley had a 44 yard field goal attempt on the last play of the game that would have won it. Unfortunately, like the Cardinals, OU's field goal protection choked. The kick was blocked.

A similar situation occured in the Auburn-LSU game where an apparent pass interference was waived off because the officials said the ball was tipped. Unfortunately, the replay showed that the contact was before the tip.

Still, LSU, for all the 309 yards it gained on offense, only put 3 points on the scoreboard. Had the Tigers finished a few more of these drives, the call isn't even an issue.

That's on the LSU Tigers, not the officials.

Also, LSU still had a chance to win, but JaMarcus Russell made a huge mistake by not trying to throw the ball in the end zone on the last play. The recievers hadn't made a catch-and-run touchdown all day. What made Russell think it was going to happen on the last play when all 11 Auburn defenders are in front of a guy trying to run into the end zone?

Yes, bad calls happen. Yes, teams get hosed. But most of the time, there's something your team could have done to prevent the call from being a game changer. And many times, your team will get a chance to undo the damage, if they take advantage of it.

Friday, September 15, 2006

Weekend Preview "ZOMG, It's Separation Saturday 2006!" Edition

All times Central, Rankings courtesy the Blogpoll

(Damn this job hunting...)

There's usually one or two of these weekends in the college football season where a bunch of ranked teams play each other. ESPN's Chris Fowler, who has given us such college football cliches as "upset saturday" and "woodshed game", describes these weekends as "Separation Saturdays." So, thanks to Fowler's employer, the name has stuck.

Usually these weekends happen during conference play, mainly because the top teams load up on patsies during the non-conference, and then they get into conference play, where they have to play all the ranked teams they avoided.

This year, partly because of the 12th game, and partly because of the quirks of preseason expectations, we have a "Separation Saturday" in September. And 3 of those matchups involve Big 12 teams.

So, for our first weekend preview of the year, we got a triple game of the week.


Big 12/Texas Game of the week #1
#17 Nebraska at #2 USC
7:00 PM ABC
(All Big 12 Markets)

This game is a lot more complex than it appears at first glance. Mainly because aside from the numbers attached to the two teams, we don't know what to make of their results so far. Yes, Nebraska is 2-0 and they are rated 11th in passing defense and 5th in total offense, but that was against Division I-AA Nicholls State, and middle-of-the-WAC Louisiana Tech. Neither of these teams is on USC's level of talent.

Conversely, it could also be argued that USC played a weak and overrated Arkansas team, who isn't on Nebraska's level of talent.

Still, Nebraska hasn't beaten a Top 10 team on the road since before most of the current Cornhuskers were even thinking about a college football scholarship (1997 at Washington). Plus, the game is in Los Angeles. Even though we're talking SoCal sports fans and not hardcore SEC fans, a road game is a road game, and in a close game like this one is shaping up to be, home field makes a difference.

Key Matchup
Emmanuel Moody vs Nebraska's front 7
Everyone wants to talk about the recievers, but Moody, who steps in the slot vacated by Reggie Bush and LenDale White, needs to give USC at least 5 yard/carry on first and second down to keep the defense honest. Adam Carriker, Jay Moore, Bo Ruud, and company are a nightmare matchup for a lot of teams.

Key player for USC
John David Booty
Hard to believe, but Booty is making only his second collegiate start, and he hasn't seen a defense as fast as Nebraska's yet.

Key player for Nebraska
Marlon Lucky
Lucky him, he gets to carry the offensive load for his whole team. If he doesn't have at least 100 yards, Nebraska is sunk.

Tale of the Tape

USC offense vs. Nebraska defensePush
Can Nebraska get enough pressure on Booty and shut down the run? Maybe for a while.
Nebraska offense vs. USC defenseUSCNow here's the million dollar question. Will Nebraska be able to run their offense effectively? Probably not. The defense is where the experience is on this team, and their DBs and LBs are faster than Nebraska's RBs and WRs.
Special TeamsPushNeither unit stands out here.
Pete Carroll's has 1 1/2 national championships in the past 3 years, and his team played for the title last year. Bill Callahan is still an unproven commodity in the collegiate ranks.
IntangiblesUSCUSC's players, even if they haven't played, have seen nothing but winning for the past 33 games. Also, USC's the home team, and Nebraska is 1-10 against top 25 competition the last 8 years.

Big 12/Texas Game of the week #2
#18 Oklahoma at #16 Oregon
Saturday, 2:30 PM, ABC
(The only Big 12 market area not carrying this game will be KPOB in Poplar Bluff, Missouri, who will be carrying the Miami-Louisville game instead. Everyone else will get this game.)

Oklahoma has gotten off to a rocky start, and Oregon is feeling confident after beating Fresno State. However, OU has won the last 2 meetings against the Ducks.

Key Matchup
Oregon backs vs Oklahoma run defense
Both UAB and Washington were able to run frequently on this team, though neither of them had the talent to sustain a running attack against a team like Oklahoma.

Key player for Oregon
Dennis Dixon
Oklahoma had trouble with another mobile quarterback, Isaiah Stanback, last week, which bodes well for Dixon's chances this week.

Key player for Oklahoma
Malcolm Kelly
OU's big play threat must play well enough to get that 8th man out of the box and into the secondary.

Tale of the Tape

Oregon offense vs. Oklahoma defenseOregon
OU did not do well against Stanback and Louis Rankin. Now they face another mobile quarterback in Dennis Dixon and another star running back in Jonathan Stewart
Oklahoma offense vs. Oregon defenseOklahoma
Kelly will have a breakout game against this secondary if Paul Thompson can find him.
Special TeamsPush
Dead even.
Bob Stoops has one national title and 2 championship game appearances.
Oklahoma is the road team, and Autzen Stadium is a rough road game. Plus, the Sooners have been plagued by turnovers and inconsistencies.

Big 12/Texas Game of the week #3
#23 Texas Tech at #21 TCU
Saturday, 4:30 PM, OLN

TCU is a tough team for anyone in any year, as Oklahoma found out last year. They recruit the Dallas-Fort Worth area well, their ball control offense keeps opponents' high powered offenses off the field, and their defense is tough to prepare for if you're not in their conference. Last time they played (in Lubbock) TCU jumped out to a lead before the Raiders roared back.

Combine that with Texas Tech's tendency under Mike Leach to play lousy on the road, and it's a bad situation for the Red Raiders.

Key Matchup
Joel Filani vs Marvin White/Eric Buchanan
Whichever one draws inside reciever Joel Filani is likely to have their hands full.

Key player for TCU
Aaron Brown
Brown has been the leading rusher in both TCU victories so far. If TCU is to control the clock, it's up to Brown to have a 100 yard day

Key player for Texas Tech
Alex Trlica
True, Trlica hit the OT game winner last week. That obscured the fact that he missed both of his kicks in regulation. Trlica can not have another game like that.

Tale of the Tape

TCU offense vs. Texas Tech defenseTCU
This is Texas Tech's first game against a run-first offense, and they've always had trouble stopping the run.
Texas Tech offense vs. TCU defenseTexas Tech
Even though the Horned Frogs roll 5 DBs in their base formation, Texas Tech has speed enough at all four wideouts to burn rovers.
Special Teams
Bears repeating: Trlica missed both regulation FG attempts against UTEP
I would give Mike Leach the edge here, except he usually has trouble with tough roadies.
IntangiblesTexas Tech
Yes, technically TCU is the home team here, but the Metroplex is home to many Red Raider alumni with cash, and they tend to pack the stadium when Tech plays any of the DFW area schools, effectively neutralizing any home field advantage.

Big XII Games

Kansas at Toledo
Friday, 7:00 PM, ESPN
Teams who take games against MAC opponents for granted usually do so at their own peril. Let's hope Kansas takes this game seriously.

Iowa State at #13 Iowa
Saturday, 11:00 AM, ESPN
Iowa State should be encouraged that Syracuse took them to OT and the fact that they beat Drew Tate and company last year. Unfortunately that game was at home, and the Cyclones must travel to Iowa City this year.

Marshall at Kansas State
Saturday, 11:30 AM, FSN Southwest/Midwest/Rocky Mtn.
Last year, Kansas State needed a miracle to beat Marshall. This year? K-State is better overall, and they have a new coach and attitude

Texas at Rice
Saturday, 5:00 PM, ESPN2
Mack Brown and company get to take out their frustrations on Ex-Longhorn Major Applewhite, Rice's offensive coordinator.

Arizona State at Colorado
Saturday, 6:00 PM, TBS
A team in turmoil vs. A team that lost to Montana State and Colorado State. Take the Sun Devils.

Missouri at New Mexico
Saturday, 7:00 PM, Regional TV coverage
Rocky Long's unusual 3-3-5 Stack is tough to prepare for if you don't face it often, plus New Mexico beat Missouri in Columbia last year, and that was when Missouri had Brad Smith.

Army vs. Texas A&M
at Alamodome, San Antonio, TX
Saturday, 8:00 PM, ESPN2

San Antonio is a military town, but all of Fort Sam Houston could show up to cheer on the Cadets and it wouldn't matter. Texas A&M should win this easily.

Baylor vs. Washington St.
at Qwest Field, Seattle
Saturday, 4:00 PM

This will be a tough neutral site game for the Bears as they, like Nebraska, have to cross 2 time zones to face a Pacific team.

Florida Atlantic at Oklahoma St.
Saturday, 6:00 PM
None of these games are going to tell us much, yet. OSU's first real test comes next week against Houston.

Other Texas Teams

Grambling at Houston
Saturday, 6:00 PM
Grambling may win the halftime, but Kevin Kolb and the Cougars will win the game easy.

North Texas at Tulsa
Saturday, 6:00 PM
Tulsa takes an easy home win against North Texas.

Sam Houston St. at SMU
Saturday, 7:00
SMU will probably win, but it will be close.

National Games of Note

Miami at Louisville
2:30 PM
Louisville's chance to prove they are a top-10 program. Miami's chance to prove that they're not yesterday's news
Michigan at Notre Dame
2:30 PM
Michigan's recievers are the fastest that Notre Dame has faced to date, and Michigan's defense is better than last year.
LSU at Auburn
2:30 PM
In effect, this is the SEC West championship game, barring a complete collapse by the winner.
Florida at Tennessee
7:00 PM
While not as important to it's division as both teams still have to play Georgia, it's an important game for both coaches. Urban Meyer is still unproven at Florida, and Phil Fulmer is almost 10 years removed from his lone national title and starting to feel the heat. Plus, Tennessee's 2 wins are against a severely overrated Cal team and a squeaker against Air Force(?)
Clemson at Florida State
6:45 PM
ESPNYep, it's the Bowden Bowl once again. Both teams desperately need a win after lackluster performances last week.


Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts
Sunday, Noon, CBS (KEYE 42)

Well, a few Texans fans thought I was crazy for giving their new offensive line an "F" grade in my preview. They quoted preseason stats, and tried their hardest to convince me how their O-line was better. They even questioned what reality I was living in. To them I say: Preseason stats don't matter, your pass protection collapsed last week against actual NFL blitz packages, and it's the reality where the Philadelphia Eagles got 5 sacks on David Carr last week and held the Texans to 70 yards rushing. Total.

The Texans now take on the Indianapolis Colts, who won last week against the New York Giants despite paltry rushing numbers

Key Matchup
Charles Spencer vs Dwight Freeney
After getting his rookie initiation against the Philadelpha Eagles and Jevon Kearse, he now faces one of the NFL's better defensive ends in Dwight Freeney.

Key player for Houston
Lewis Sanders
With Patrick Buchanon out with a foot injury, it's up to Sanders to step up and show he can play.

Key player for Indianapolis
Joseph Addai
Someone has to provide this team with a running game. Addai needs to justify his first round pick status. With the Texans giving up 4.3 yards/carry to Philly's tandem, this may be the game where Addai breaks out.

Tale of the Tape

Texans offense vs. Colts defenseColts
Offensive line still can't block well, now they are up against another good defense
Colts offense vs. Texans defenseColts
Donte Stallworth had 141 yards in an unfamiliar offense. Now the Texans face Reggie Wayne and Marvin Harrison. Without
Special TeamsColts
Adam Vinatieri vs. Kris Brown. It doesn't get more obvious than that.
Tony Dungy has the experience factor on Gary Kubiak.
Houston doesn't really seem to believe it can win yet. Besides, it's not January yet.

Washington Redskins at Dallas Cowboys
7:00 PM, NBC (KXAN 36)

Let's get one thing straight, Cowboys fans, Drew Bledsoe is the starter for the season, and if you think for one minute Tony Romo is going to save this franchise, you should be suspended for 4 games under the NFL's substance abuse policy. Furthermore, the offensive line can't hold their blocks, which makes things worse for everyone. Either Parcells is going to have to shorten the drops, or he's going to have to start running more screens and draws to get teams out of blitzing every time.

To make matters worse, the Washington Redskins, a team which swept the Cowboys last year, comes to town.

Key Matchup
Dallas's O-Line vs Redskins' blitz
Gregg Williams is one of the best offensive coordinators out there, and he can give this Dallas line fits.

Key player for Dallas
Drew Bledsoe
If Bledsoe can stay upright and find his recievers, he can quiet the critics. That's a big "if"

Key player for Washington
Mark Brunell
Brunell is in a similar situation to Bledsoe in that Redskins fans will be calling for his head if he doesn't win this game.

Tale of the Tape

Cowboys offense vs. Redskins defenseRedskins
Cowboys rolled up 10 early points on the Jags, and couldn't cash in. It's hard to see them faring any better against the 'Skins.
Redskins offense vs. Cowboys defenseCowboys
Redskins offense coming off a lackluster performance against Minnesota.
Special TeamsCowboys
If only because Mike Vanderjagt is healthy and Mat McBriar can boom it.
Gibbs and Parcells are both legends.
Hard to tell who really has a mental edge here.

Monday:Weekend Wrap-Up

Thursday, September 7, 2006

2006 Cheap Seats MFP: NFL, all at once

OK, because I missed Monday-Wednesday with job-hunting stuff, I'm going to write this in one shot. Wish me luck

Oh, and even though I nailed Pittsburgh last year as the champs, it was pure luck. All picks are still guaranteed to lose money at your bookie.

Houston Texans

The Skinny: There are a lot of changes with this team. Dom Capers and crew are gone. Charlie Casserly is gone after missing both Reggie Bush and Vince Young. In steps former Denver Broncos offensive Coordinator(and Texas A&M alumnus) Gary Kubiak, who will most likely install a similar offense to Mike Shanahan's in Denver.


Starter: David Carr still has a great arm and leadership skills, but like every single year, it remains to be seen if he can get the necessary protection.Grade: B-
Depth: Former Dolphin QB Sage Rosenfels has taken very few snaps in an NFL gameGrade: D

Running Back
Starter: With Domanick Davis out for the season, Wali Lundy gets the first crack at the starting job Grade: D
Depth: Vernand Morency is the only healthy backup at the moment.Grade: D+

Wide reciever
Starters: Adding Eric Moulds was a coup for the Texans, he brings some experience alongside Andre Johnson. Grade: A
Depth: Depleted by the loss of Corey Bradford, Grade: C-

Tight End
Starter: For now, it looks like the Texans will go with some combination of Jeb Putzier and Mark Bruener unless Rookie Owen Daniels makes a huge impact. Grade: C
Depth: Well, at least they have 3 tight ends they think can play Grade: C

Offensive Line
Starters: This was the number one need for the 4th consecutive offseason and the Texans lack-of-braintrust still failed to improve the position.Grade: F
Reserves: If the starters are an F, what grade do you think the guys who couldn't beat them out get? That right... Grade: F

Defensive Line
Starters: Say what you want about Mario Williams, he may just turn out to be a quality 4-3 DE. Also with the Transition to the 4-3, last year's first rounder Travis Johnson should break out. Grade: C+
Depth: N.D. Kalu, who's more of a 3-4 end, could see some playing time, but none of the other defensive linemen are all that impressiveGrade: C

Starters: Morlon Greenwood had 112 tackles last year at OLB, and Rookie DeMeco Ryans might help solidify the inside. Who plays opposite these two is the big question mark.Grade: B-
Depth: DaShon Polk had 93 tackles last year as an ILB, but was squeezed out with the move to the 4-3. Grade: C+

Starters: Dunta Robinson still has upside, but the corner opposite, Phillip Buchanon, is coming off an ankle injury.Grade: B-
Depth: Dexter McCleon is past his prime and Lewis Sanders, is something of an unknown quantityGrade: C

Starters: With Marcus Coleman off to the Cowboys (and on suspension), second year man C.C. Brown and third year man Glenn Earl will take over the starting roles Grade: D
Depth: The backup safeties are nothing to write home about.Grade: F

Kicker: Kris Brown hit 76.5% of his field goals. Which means he roughly misses 1 out of every 4 Grade: D
Punter: Chad Stanley's net average: 38.8 Grade: C
Returners: Buchanon, if healthy will probably resume return duties Grade: B

Head Coach: We know Gary Kubiak is a top offensive playcaller, but the jury is still out on his game management skills.Grade: B-
Offensive Coordinator: Former Green Bay Packers head coach Mike Sherman is listed as the top offensive assistant, but make no mistake, this is Kubiak's offense, and it was part of the reason all those Denver backs got 1000 yardsGrade: A
Defensive Coordinator: Richard Smith moves over from the Dolphins to take over the Defensive Coordinator position, it's hard to say how much of an impact he's going to have because he was basically running Nick Saban's scheme, and now he's got to devise one of his own.Grade: D

Best Record Guess: Without a better offensive line, Expect a repeat of last year. You can't scheme your way out of a bad offensive line.2-14, dead last.

The Rest of the South

Jacksonville: Jacksonville's record last year was better than 5 of the 8 division champions. Even with Jimmy Smith's retirement, there'Best Guess: 11-5, Division Champs

Indianapolis: There's no reason to think that Indy won't win the division... What's that? Edgerrin James signed with the Cardinals? Oh, never mind. But, they still have enough pieces to be a playoff team. Best Guess: 10-6, possible wild card.

Tennessee: The QB situation may be a mess, as the Titans are hesitant to play Vince Young too early, but there's still talent surrounding the eventual starter (whomever that may be). Still, the Titans defense needs work.Best Guess: 5-11

The rest of the AFC

AFC East
TeamBest Record GuessThe Skinny
I'm going to say what a lot of people want to say, but can't because they're afraid of offending Bill Belichick: The Dolphins have the pieces, the coaching, and the drive to overtake the Patriots this year. Sure we all know about Daunte Culpepper, but the key pickup no one is talking about is Will Allen.
New England
If it weren't for Belichick and Tom Brady, this would be a 6-10 team. The Salary Cap toll is going to start showing this year, as the Patriots front office starts to find out how replaceable their parts really are.
New York Jets
6-10Chad Pennington is back, but there's no depth at running back, and implementing a 3-4 is probably the worst thing that could have happened to this defense.
Buffalo4-12Aside from Willis McGahee, this team is a mess on offense. And the defense could only stop the Houston Texans.
AFC North
TeamBest Record GuessThe Skinny
Pittsburgh13-3Even with Roethlisberger's bad offseason and the loss of Antwaan Randle-El, the defense is still there, Willie Parker is now the unquestioned starter, and Santonio Holmes will provide a nice complement to Hines Ward in time.
Cincinnati11-5Surprise, Carson Palmer is back, but will he stay healthy? Everything else is in place for another playoff run.
8-8Even though Steve McNair is the quarterback for this team, the once-vaunted defense is getting long in the tooth.
Cleveland4-12The experts say this team could reach .500 this year. I say: Prove it.
AFC West
TeamBest Record GuessThe Skinny
Yes, people will call for Jake Plummer's head, and the running back situation is uncertain, but Denver should still win the division this year. Some running back will get 1,000 yards, and the defense will be solid.
San Diego
Even with the loss of Steve Foley for the season(gunshot from overzealous off-duty cop), the Chargers defense should still be decent. And Phillip Rivers has too many weapons around him to fail.
Kansas City
When your tackle is Kyle Turley, your offensive line has issues. When you have no quality defensive linemen and you want to run Cover 2, your whole defense has issues.
Art Shell: Great as a person, good coach. However, the alleged talent on defense is too old, they don't have a solid #1 running back, and Aaron Brooks is a bad QB.

AFC Playoffs

Division Champs
Pittsburgh Steelers (13-3)
Jacksonville Jaguars (11-5)
Miami Dolphins (10-6)
Denver Broncos (10-6)
Wild Cards
Cincinnati Bengals (11-5)
Indianapolis Colts (10-6)

Wild Card Round
Miami over Indianapolis
Cincinnati over Denver
Division Round
Miami over Jacksonville
Pittsburgh over Cincinnati
AFC Championship
Pittsburgh over Miami

Dallas Cowboys

The Skinny: Well, the Cowboys have had back-to-back quality drafts, and they have been very active in free agency. Now it's time for the Cowboys to produce


Starter: Drew Bledsoe returns as the Cowboys' starter for 2006, and the veteran finally has some weapons to throw to. However, he's still past his prime as a quarterback and he still needs his offensive line to keep him upright. Grade: C+
Depth: Tony Romo seems to be getting better as a quarterback, and could be a quality backup, but let's not get ahead of ourselves and peg him as a future starter Grade: B-
Running Back
Starter: Julius Jones will probably start. He has the speed to be a great NFL running back, but he hasn't shown the durability. Grade: B+
Depth: Marion Barber III is more of a power runner, but he should see a decent amount of action without the productivity dropping off too much.Grade: A-

Wide reciever
Starters: All the talk has been about T.O., who should improve the Cowboys' passing numbers once he figures out that he's not going to win a media battle with Bill Parcells. Just don't forget about Terry Glenn. Grade: A+
Depth: Patrick Crayton was a surprise find for the Cowboys last year, and should give the Cowboys a decent 3rd reciever Grade: D

Tight End
Starter: You can start the debate over whether the Cowboys' Jason Witten or the Eagles' L.J. Smith is the best tight end in the East. One thing's for sure, Witten means the Cowboys don't have to put a 4th reciever on the field in passing situations Grade: A.
Depth: Dan Campbell is gone, and the backups have little experience Grade: B

Offensive Line
Starters: Two big holes at left guard, with Larry Allen departing for the Cardinals, and right tackle, which right now is a revolving door Grade: C+
Reserves: Well, Rob Pettiti and Al Johnson, who started last year, are backups this year. At least there's some experience Grade: C

Defensive Line
Starters: With surprise performer Chris Canty, Jason Ferguson, and Marcus Spears expected to be the big contributors, this could be the best pure 3-4 defensive line in the NFC Grade: A
Depth: This is where it gets a little murky. Greg Ellis has moved to linebacker, and La'Roi Glover is gone. that leaves second year man Jay Ratliff and rookie Jason Hatcher to back up the ends Grade: C

Starters: Ellis has proven he can make open-field tackles at linebacker, DeMarcus Ware is on track for a breakout season, and former Jaguar Akin Ayodele should help solidify the middle. Bobby Carpenter will eventually start. Grade: A
Depth: Rookie Kevin Burnett and Al Singleton could see some snaps. Grade: B

Starters: Terrence Newman and Anthony Henry should make a great tandem Grade: A
Depth: Aaron Glenn has apparently lost a step, but should still be able to cover the other team's 3rd reciever. After that, it's questionable Grade: C

Starters: Roy Williams is still Roy Williams. Keith Davis is not Roy Williams, but he's survived a bullet in the leg to win the starting job Grade: B-
Depth: Unfortunately, Marcus Coleman's suspension means that the Cowboys depth at this position is limited. Grade: D

Kicker: Whatever you think of Mike Vanderjagt, he's a hell of a lot better than what the Cowboys had last year Grade: A
Punter: Mat McBriar can Grade: A
Returners: Right now it's Tyrus Thompson and Terrence Newman, we'll see how it goes Grade: C

Head Coach: Bill Parcells is still one of the best coaches in the game. While he's faced with a unique player management challenge, he does have the upper hand in that . Grade: A
Offensive Coordinator: Tony Sparano is the de facto offensive coordinator, but Parcells will probably make most of the play calls. Don't expect anything fancy. Grade: B
Defensive Coordinator: Mike Zimmer had to adjust to calling a 3-4 defense last year and he passed the test with flying colors. Grade: B+

Best Record Guess: My head says I should be cautious, but there's too many pieces here not to go out and at least grab a piece of the NFC East crown. 11-5 and the division

The Rest of the East

Philadelphia: I'm sure Philly fan wants to see Donovan McNabb show he can put the T.O. thing behind him, and Donte Stallworth helps in that regard. And the defense is solid. The problem is, everyone else in the division made significant improvements. Best Guess:10-6

New York Giants: OK, Giants, now let's see what you can do when you play against a *real* schedule. Best Guess: 8-8.

Washington: With Clinton Portis expected to miss significant time, it's hard to see the Redskins having any net improvement. Besides, when Dan Snyder spends money on a free agent, they usually turn out to be busts. Best Guess: 6-10, 3rd Place

The rest of the NFC

NFC North
TeamBest Record GuessThe Skinny
9-7Once again, NFL rules state that someone has to win the NFC North, and the defending division champs are probably in the best position with their defense and running game.
8-8Hard to tell how things will go with this team, but Brad Johnson's veteran leadership should help things on the offensive side of the ball.
6-10They can't get any worse than they were last year, but they're not even close to playoff bound.
Green Bay
4-12Brett Favre can't save this team anymore.

NFC South
TeamBest Record GuessThe Skinny
12-4The defense is back, Keyshawn Johnson should complement Steve Smith, and DeShaun Foster gets to carry the load full time.
Tampa Bay
11-5OK, it's not the glory days of the Warren Sapp-led unit, but the Tampa defense is still very good, and they have some good offensive pieces
Another team that's hard to pinpoint. Michael Vick is back, the defense was upgraded in the offseason, but T.J. Duckett was traded and Warrick Dunn has never been a 30 carry per game back.
New Orleans1-15
They need more pieces besides just Reggie Bush and Deuce McCallister.

NFC West
TeamBest Record GuessThe Skinny
Seattle11-5Even without Steve Huchinson, defending NFC champ Seattle still has the core of what got them to the Super Bowl
New Stadium, new quarterback, new running back, same old lousy Cardinals.
San Fransisco5-11
Alex Smith has plenty of weapons to throw to now, but losing Julian Peterson and Andre Carter stunts the overall growth of this team.
St. Louis4-12
Yeah, Torry Holt is still there, as is Stephen Jackson, but it's going to take time to transition to the new offense. And Adam Archuleta may not help Washington, but his loss hurts St. Louis's D

NFC Playoffs

Division Champs
Carolina Panthers (12-4)
Seattle Seahawks (11-5)
Dallas Cowboys (11-5)
Chicago Bears (9-7)
Wild Card
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (11-5)
Philadelphia Eagles (10-6)

Wild Card Round
Tampa Bay over Chicago
Dallas over Philadelphia
Division Round
Seattle over Dallas
Carolina over Tampa Bay
NFC Championship
Carolina over Seattle

Super Bowl Pick

It worked so well last year, we're going with Pittsburgh again this year.
Pittsburgh over Carolina

Thursday, August 31, 2006

2006 Cheap Seats MFP: National Picture

Now we take a look at the national picture

Issues in 2006

The new rule changes: All the coaches need to quit whining and adjust to the new clock rules. It's for television, and that television contract pays their salary.

The BCS National Championship Game and the move to Fox: I like the fact that the "national championship" game is now a separate entity because it creates 2 more at-large berths for a minor conference team to shoot for.

The problem for the BCS is, they've moved the BCS games from ABC to Fox.

Remember anything on ABC is going to be aggressively promoted by ESPN, which has more pull in the sports world now than at any time in history. When the BCS had problems in the past, they could count on ESPN's stable of experts to spin the problems in a positive light because ABC and ESPN had a financial stake in the BCS.

Now that the BCS is on Fox, they don't have "the Worldwide Leader in Sports" in their corner. Which means that any controversy the BCS has will be aggressively attacked by ESPN now that they don't have to worry about t's financial well being.

And this year, we are almost guaranteed to have BCS controversy because a lot of the top teams are flawed. Most likely there will be no undefeated teams and many one-loss teams.

The cries for a playoff are only going to be louder and louder.


North Champ: Nebraska
South Champ: Texas
Conference champ: Texas over Nebraska

Basically, this conference will come down to Cal, Oregon, and USC. Oregon and Cal will both be good, but USC has used its dominant position over the last 3 years to recruit well. Still, someone's going to beat the Trojans, be it Cal, Oregon, or UCLA.
Conference Champ: USC

The West is pretty straightforward: The LSU-Auburn winner will win the division. The East is where it gets more complex, as every team except Vanderbilt and Kentucky has a shot. Florida has a brutal road stretch, Tennessee's got talent, but Phil Fulmer will still find ways to lose close games, South Carolina still needs to make up a talent gap, and Georgia lost DJ Shockley to the pros. Best guess, Georgia probably wins the East since they survived that 4-way death match last year.
Conference champ: LSU over Georgia

Big 10
Like the SEC East, there are 4 viable contenders for the Big 10 title: Michigan, Ohio State, Penn State, and Iowa that could make the race a mess. Ohio State, though has the most overall talent of this group, plus they'll get the early boost from winning at Texas.
Conference champ: Ohio State

Big East
Whoever wins the Louisville-West Virginia game will probably win the Big East. I suspect it will be Louisville because they feel like they have something to prove after last year.
Conference champ: Lousiville

FSU, Miami and Virginia Tech all come into the season with question marks, but FSU's schedule is less taxing.

Notre Dame
Notre Dame is probably overrated, but they will finish with at least 9 wins, which should get them in the BCS

BCS Busters
Utah established the pattern for "BCS Busters" in 2004. They went undefeated and got a marquee win out of conference against Texas A&M.

This year, TCU and Utah will be up for the Mountain West, but one will knock the other off, and neither play anyone of note. Boise State could also end up undefeated, if they get by Fresno State, but they don't play anyone of note. And C-USA teams always knock each other off.

So the chances of a non-BCS team sneaking in are slim.

At-large bids
Notre Dame will take up one, that's a given. The rest... I like Auburn to get one of the remaining bids, because they're the second-best team in the toughest conference in the nation. Miami will probably get a bid because they'll win their division in the ACC, and Miami's a big name. Iowa will emerge as the Big 10 runner up, and since the Big 10 is the second best conference, and Ohio State will be in the title game, the Rose Bowl will demand a replacement.

Big 12 Bowl bids

Texas - BCS
Oklahoma - Cotton Bowl
Nebraska - Gator Bowl
Texas A&M - Holiday Bowl
Texas Tech - Alamo Bowl
Iowa State - Sun Bowl
Colorado - Insight Bowl
Kansas State - Independence Bowl

and we've run out of Big 12 bowl eligible teams, so the Texas Bowl (formerly the Houston Bowl) will most likely go to it's backup plan of picking a Big East team.


Orange Bowl
Florida State vs. Louisville

Rose Bowl
USC vs. Iowa

Sugar Bowl
Auburn vs. Miami

Fiesta Bowl
Notre Dame vs. Texas

National Championship Game
Ohio State vs. LSU

National Championship Pick: LSU

Wednesday, August 30, 2006

2006 Cheap Seats MFP: Big XII South


Well, if Tech, A&M, Baylor and Oklahoma State want to upset the Big 12 South's pecking order, this is probably going to be their best shot at it. Texas and Oklahoma both have serious questions at QB, even though both are surrounded by great talent, and both appear very vulnerable. However, Texas and Oklahoma both have great talent on defense and that may make the difference.

The Skinny: Last year, Baylor was one victory short of a bowl game. They went 4-1 in their first 5 games, the one loss was in overtime to Texas A&M at Kyle Field. Then they lost their next 5, including a double overtime loss to OU, back to back shut outs at the hands of Texas Tech and Texas. This year, they lose 7 of 11 starters from the defense, which was adequate at best. Granted, they catch a break in that they face both Kansas teams, but the rest of the schedule is brutal: Non-conference games against TCU and Washington State, and bad road trips at Texas Tech, Texas, and Colorado in conference. They will probably drop a tad from last year.

Easy W's: Northwestern State
Close, but probably a win: Army, Kansas, Kansas State
Close, but probably a loss: at Oklahoma State, Texas A&M
Definite L's: TCU, Washington State*, at Colorado, Oklahoma, at Texas Tech, at Texas
* - at Qwest Field, Seattle

Position Ratings
QB: B- - Shawn Bell has been the starter for the past 3 years, which a lot of programs in the Big 12 can't say this year.
RB: B- - Paul Mosley and Brandon Whittaker combined for 1100 yards last year, and both return.
WR: C - Outside of Dominque Zeigler, there's not a whole lot of depth
TE: D - Their starter is a former QB who switched to the position in the spring
OL: B - This unit gave up fewer sacks last year than they did 2 years ago, and 6 of the 8 starters are back

(Note: Baylor runs a 4-2-5 defense. There's a free safety that plays in the defensive backfield, the other 2 safeties can play either near the line of scrimmage or deep, so we're calling them both rovers for convenience sake.)
DL: D - Less than 2 sacks per game last year.
LB: D - Nick Moore only had 23 tackles and Antonio Jones is a redshirt freshman that wasn't highly recruited
CB: C+ - Both corners are back, C.J. Wilson had 5 picks last year
ROV: D - One rover's a lightly regarded JUCO transfer, the other has only 22 tackles and no TFLs.
FS: D - The two deep is a sophomore and a redshirt freshman

Kicking Game: B - P Daniel Sepulveda is an A+, K Ryan Havens is a C-, when you average the two, you get a B.
Return Game: C+ - Replacing Willie Andrews is tough, but the coverage teams are decent

What the Baylor must do to win:
1. Score more on offense - The offense can help the defense out by putting together drives and keeping the defense off the field
2. Get pressure on the QB - Sacks are at a premium with this group
3. Play loose - They're not expected to do much, so they don't have anything to lose.

Projection: Another year, same old Bad News Bears. 4-8 overall, 2-6 conference

Oklahoma State
The Skinny: Last year, this team was not in synch, but they did manage an upset of Texas Tech, gave Texas all they could handle for a half, and they got 3 not-so-easy victories against a I-AA team and a couple of Sun Belt teams.

Easy W's: Missouri State, FAU, at Kansas
Close, but probably a win: Arkansas St*, Baylor
Close, but probably a loss: at Houston, at Kansas State,
Definite L's: Nebraska, Oklahoma, Texas A&M, at Texas, at Texas Tech.
* - at Little Rock, Arkansas

Position Ratings
QB: D - Bobby Reid suffered a foot injury midway through, watched Al Pena lead the team to an upset against Texas Tech, and struggled when he returned from injury.
RB: B- - Mike Hamilton had 991 yards as a redshirt freshman last year.
WR: B+ - D'Juan Woods heads a talented group, it just depends on if Bobby Reid can get them the football.
TE: D - Largely a group of blockers. Brandon Pettigrew struggled as a reciever.
OL: C- - Corey Hilliard may be an NFL prospect, but the rest of the line isn't

DL: D - Dead last in the Big 12 in rushing yards and yards/carry given up.
LB: D- - It all hinges on if Air Force transfer MLB Marcus Brown can be a solid tackler. Which is hard to do without decent defensive tackles.
CB: F - The secondary was dead last in the Big 12 in interceptions...
S: D- - ... and near the bottom in passing yards given up

Kicking Game: C+ - Bruce Redden and Jason Ricks are both long, but not necessary accurate.
Return Game: C- - Has the potential to be dangerous, but then again, it depends on how well they block.

What the Cowboys must do to win:
1. It's all on Bobby Reid - He has the players around him, he just needs to produce.
2. More turnovers needed - Last year's turnover margin: -15
3. Play well on defense - They were horrible in several key statistical categories and can only get better.

Projection: It's hard to trust a team who's two deep is filled with sophomores, redshirt freshmen, and freshmen just out of high school. 5-7 overall, 2-6 in conference

Texas Tech
The Skinny: There's reason for optimism in Red Raider Nation. For the first time, the team has a quarterback with next-level talent starting in Graham Harrell, and he has Jarrett Hicks, Joel Filani, and Robert Johnson to throw to. Coupled with Texas and Oklahoma having quarterback issues and graduation losses, and Tech's second place finish last year in the Big 12 South, Red Raider fans may think this is their year

To borrow a phrase from Lee Corso, "Not so fast, my friend."

Objectively, no one's really sure what to make of the defense, which moves All-Big 12 DE Kenyuta Dawson, who had great speed, but not DE size, to outside linebacker, moves OLB/MLB Fletcher Sessions back to the outside now that MLB Brock Stratton is back from injury, gets Seth Nitchmann back from injury also, and has to replace 3 defensive backs.

Also, they have a much tougher non-conference schedule with roadies to UTEP and TCU. Plus, Mike Leach has a bad habit of dropping conference games he should win, usually on the road, as evidenced by last year's loss to Oklahoma State in Stillwater. There's a couple of those road games against Colorado and Iowa State. Throw in the fact that Leach is a combined 2-10 against Oklahoma and Texas, and you're looking at another 8-wins-and a bowl game season this year.

Easy W's: SMU, at TCU, SE Louisiana, Missouri, Baylor
Close, but probably a win: at UTEP, at Texas A&M, at Oklahoma St.
Close, but probably a loss: at Colorado, at Iowa St., Texas
Definite L's: at Oklahoma

(Note: Texas Tech's offense is a bit different than other spread offenses in that it employs 4 recievers. The inside receivers have passing game responsibilities similar to tight ends in a conventional offense in that they have to control the middle of the field and make first downs. So I list them as a separate position.)
Position Ratings
QB: A+ - Harrell is probably the first QB Tech has started which had "VHT" attached to his name. (For those who don't speak preseason mag, that's "very highly touted")
RB: D+ - It remains to be seen whether Shannon Woods can be a dual threat running back, which is what this offense requires. He may lose his job eventually to Kobey Lewis or Baron Batch.
WR: A - Jarrett Hicks and Robert Johnson make a tough matchup for any secondary.
IR: A - Joel Filani is also a homerun hitter who can catch consistently. Danny Amendola will also see playing time, with sophomore recruit Todd Walker and his 4.3 speed rotating in on some plays.
OL: B+ - This unit returns 4 starters and is boosted by BYU transfer Ofa Mohetau.

DL: B - Nitschmann is back, and DE McKinner Dixon will finally get a chance to show his 4.5 speed.
LB: B - Kenyuta Dawson's speed helps this unit out tremendously
CB: B- - Antonio Huffman leads this unit, but the younger players are faster than Tech CBs in previous years.
S: B - Replacing Vince Meeks and Dwayne Slay is no easy task, but Joe Garcia is athletic and Darcel McBath seems to be in that Dwayne Slay mold.

Kicking Game: B- - Alex Reyes is a solid punter, but Alex Trlica still needs to be more consistent.
Return Game: C - Shannon Woods and Danny Amendola will probably handle the return duties again this year.

What the Red Raiders must do to win
1. Find a RB who can be a dual threat - Taurean Henderson was valuable to Texas Tech's offense because he could both run with the ball and catch it out of the backfield. If Wood's isn't that type a threat, they need to go to someone else.
2. Better special teams - Yes, I said it, better special teams from Texas Tech. The field goal kickers and return teams both need to be more productive than they were last year.
3. Get more heat on the opposing QB - I realize that the sack totals from last year were disappointing, and that it was largely due to injury, but the injured players have returned and there's young talent behind the starters who are itching to prove themselves. Tech is out of excuses now.

If they can't find at least 24-30 sacks out of this group (that would be 2-2.5 per game over a 12 game season), defensive coordinator Lyle Setencich needs to be canned.

Projection: 8-4 overall, 4-4 in conference, bowl eligible

Texas A&M
(special thanks to Ryan at Texas A&M and Baseball for keeping the public informed on the Aggie depth chart. Phil Steele, Athlon, and all had different projections.)

The Skinny: Dennis Franchione is on the hotseat at A&M after going 5-6 last year, and probably rightly so since A&M fans actually give a darn about their program. Gone are Reggie McNeal and old defensive coordinator Carl Torbush. In comes Gary Darnell, John Mackovic's former defensive coordinator at Illinois and Texas, who plans on implementing a 4-2-5 system.

I hear the Longhorn fans chortling out there since none were impressed with Darnell's defensive schemes, but given that Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Baylor, and Texas all run 3 reciever sets, and Texas Tech has 4 wideouts all the time, bringing in a DC who will roll 5 DBs as the base defense is a smart move, especially since they gave up 300 yard games to the likes of Barrick Nealy, Shawn Bell, and Allan Evridge.

Will they crack the top 2? Probably not. But they're not going 5-6 again. Their talent won't let them.

Easy W's: The Citadel, Louisiana-Lafayette, Army*, Louisiana Tech, at Oklahoma St.
Close, but probably a win: at Baylor
Close, but probably a loss: Nebraska, Texas Tech, at Texas
Definite L's: Oklahoma
* - at Alamodome, San Antonio

Position Ratings
QB: B- - While Stephen McGee has the intangibles, he's not exactly as fast as Reggie McNeal, and it's hard to make any judgements about his arm strength because he only has one start and a few backup performances.
RB: A+ - I can't remember an A&M team where running back was a weakness. Courtney Lewis should be all-Big 12 if they feature him.
WR: B - Injuries plagued this unit last year, but the talent is there.
TE: A+ - Certainly, the talent is there in Martellus Bennett. If Franchione knows what's good for him, Bennett will be a feature reciever.
OL: B+ - Maybe needs to be tighter in the pass protection, but this unit does open running lanes effectively

(Note: As stated above Texas A&M is switching to a 4-2-5 defense, A&M is referring to it's 5th DB as a "Whip", I call it a Rover, but it's the same general position.)

DL: B+ - I would bump this group up a letter grade if Will Morrissey was playing, but he's left the team for personal reasons.
LB: B - Justin Warren will be flanked by JUCO transfer Misi Tupe at the moment. It may change.
CB: B+ - Certainly, this unit has speed, but A&M is starting a redshirt freshman and a sophomore. Maybe they will grow into it, maybe they won't.
ROV/SS: B+ - Japhus Brown is the new rover, if he can play a full season. Sophomore Devin Gregg moves to Strong Safety.
FS: B+ - Melvin Bullitt could be all-Big 12

Kicking Game: B - A slight drop off at K now that Todd Pegram is gone, but P Justin Brantly has a leg on him
Return Game: D- - considering the kick returns have been ranked in the triple digits the last 2 years, and the punt return only ranked 60 last year despite having fast returners, one has to wonder about the return team coaching.

What the Aggies must do to win:
1. Get ino the backfield on a regular basis - with only 4 down linemen and 2 linebackers, it's imperative that they get a good rush.
2. Grow up in a hurry, secondary - 3 of the 5 starters are sophomores or younger.
3. Many Happy Returns - As in they need to get better field position on their kick and punt returns

Projection: No one would who knows would look at you funny if you pick this team to win the South, but it just isn't going to happen. 8-4 overall, 6-2 in conference, bowl eligible

The Skinny: Forget about Rhett Bomar. OU returns 9 defensive starters, still has Adrian Peterson, still has talent to replace the departures on offense. They aren't going anywhere

Easy W's: UAB, Washington, Middle Tenn. St., at Missouri, at Baylor, Texas Tech, at Texas A&M
Close, but probably a win: Colorado, Iowa St.
Close, but probably a loss: at Oregon, Texas*
Definite L's: none
* - Cotton Bowl, Dallas Texas

Position Ratings
QB: C+ - Paul Thompson is probably keeping the seat warm for someone else, but there's a lot of talent around him.
RB: A+ - You know, that Adrian Peterson guy's pretty good. Even though he wasn't in Heisman contention, he had 1104 yards in 8 starts last year.
WR: A - In a word, fast.
TE: B - They're young, but can block and recieve
OL: C+ - We'll wait and see if the pass protection is better this year

DL: A - Bookends CJ Ah You and Calvin Thibodeaux will get pressure on the QB
LB: A - Zach Latimer, Rufus Alexander, and DeMarrio Pleasant are probably one of the best linebacking trios in the country.
CB: A - D.J. Wolfe and Reggie Smith are a year older and still fast.
S: B - Position battles make this hard to predict, but all the players in the mix get a B on talent alone.

Kicking Game: B - Sophomore Garrett Hartley takes over the kicking duties
Return Game: F - averaged 18.2 yards per kick return last year and 7.4 yards per punt return (yo!)

What the Sooners must do to win:
1. Play to their talent level - This team is too good to go 8-4 again
2. Develop a passing game - The talent is there, Paul Thompson just needs to find them. Otherwise they will see a lot of 8 man fronts again.
3. Better return game - This has been an issue for Oklahoma 2 years running. Surely they have a returner in all that talent.

Projection: 10-2 overall, 7-1 conference, bowl eligible

The Skinny: Mack Brown finally took a team to a national title. Question is, was it all Vince Young or all Mack Brown. This is the year we find out.

Aside from an early loss to Ohio State, this team should be back in the BCS mix as Big 12 Champions.

Easy W's: North Texas, at Rice, SHSU, Iowa State, at Kansas State, Baylor, Oklahoma State.
Close, but probably a win: Nebraska (twice), Oklahoma*, Texas A&M, at Texas Tech
Close, but probably a loss: Ohio State
Definite L's: none
* - Cotton Bowl, Dallas, Texas

Position Ratings
QB: C+ - Colt McCoy is the the starter... for now
RB: A - Jamaal Charles is the type of back that can carry this team.
WR: B - They were better than expected because of Vince, now it's their turn to make the QB look good.
TE: B- - Who will step up to replace David Thomas?
OL: A+ - 3 of the 5 starters return and the other two have the physical tools to start for an elite D-1 program.

DL: A+ - Tim Crowder, Frank Okam, and Brian Robison are NFL-bound
LB: A+ - Rashad Bobino and Robert Killibrew will lead this unit
CB: A - Young, but very talented.
S: A - Michael Griffith is the secondary's anchor

Kicking Game: B - Greg Johnson will handle both placekicking and punting duties. It remains to be seen whether he can be a consistent kicker. He certainly has a strong leg.
Return Game: A - Even with the loss of Raymonce Taylor, this return unit will be solid.

What the Longhorns must do to win:
1. No taking plays off or let ups - Texas is going to get everyone's best shot, and they need to play like it.
2. Be as aggressive as last year in the passing game - Playing conservative will do this team no good. One of the key plays from last year was Vince's long bomb to Limas Sweed at the end of the half
3. Don't get down if they lose to Ohio State - This year, it's possible to even be #1 with one loss, there's going to be time to play your way back in.

Projection: 12-1 overall, 8-0 in conference, and the Big XII Champions

Big XII North Summary
10-3Back on top in the North
Iowa State
Bret Meyer and Todd Blythe lead
4-46-6A year in transition
Kansas State
6-6Need help from WRs
3-9Dark horse? Don't believe it.
1-73-9Crashing back down to reality

Big XII Summary

Big XII South Summary
8-012-1Is Mack Brown good or lucky?
7-110-2Oklahoma's still got talent.
Texas A&M
8-4New D should help.
Texas Tech
8-4Will they play well every game?
Oklahoma State2-63-9Building for next year
Baylor2-63-9Last again

Big XII Summary

Big XII Championship Game: Texas over Nebraska
Offensive Player of the Year: Adrian Peterson, Oklahoma
Defensive Player of the Year: Tim Crowder, Texas
Special Teams Player of the Year: Mason Crosby, Colorado
Coach of the Year: Bill Callahan, Nebraska

Tuesday, August 29, 2006

2006 Cheap Seats MFP: Big XII North

Well, Aside from Colorado, Nebraska, and Iowa State (who shocked the heck out of a lot of people last year) the Big XII North was still bad, but very competitive. There was a lot of coaching turnover in the offseason, as Bill Snyder decided to retire and Gary Barnett was finally forced out at Colorado.

No one's really in danger of getting fired this year, but while Nebraska and Iowa State will have competitive teams, no one's ready to proclaim the North Division as the Big XII South's equal. At least not yet.

Here we go, from worst to first:

The Skinny: Kansas has actually gone to 2 bowl games since head coach Mark Mangino arrived. Last year, they went to a 7-5 record buyoed by defense that held Oklahoma to 19 points and Texas Tech to 23 on the offensive end (Tech also got a defensive TD). Both of those teams ended up winning, however, because the offense was horrible. Only twice did they get over 21 points in a Big XII game, and one of those was because Kansas hit an overtime game winning field goal to break the 21 point barrier. This year, Kansas only returns 3 starters from that defense, and the offense figures to be equally bad.

Easy W's: Northwestern State, Louisiana-Monroe
Close, but probably a win: at Kansas State
Close, but probably a loss: at Toledo, South Florida, at Baylor
Definite L's: Colorado, Texas A&M, at Iowa State, Missouri, at Nebraska, at Oklahoma St.

Position Ratings
QB: D+ - The starter should be Kerry Meier, but Kansas played musical QBs all last year with Adam Barmann, so it's hard to tell.
RB: C+ - Kansas has at least settled on a starting running back: Jon Cornish, and 5 yards/carry isn't too bad.
WR: C- - I'm hard pressed to find a reciever here that can be good enough to help Meier or Barmann out.
TE: C- - Derek Fine's a blocker, that's it.
OL: C+ - David Ochoa is the unit's poster boy according to the preseason publications, but the other four must work in concert with him.

DL: B- - All the linemen have the size to stuff the run, but can they rush the passer?
LB: C- - When you lose 278 combined tackles, that's tough to replace
CB: C - Sophomore Aqib Talib got a lot of work last year while Charles Gordon was having to help the offense, but this unit was hardest hit by graduations.
S: C- - JUCO transfers must prove they can perform

Kicking Game: A-
- Scott Webb hit some clutch kicks last year, and at times was the Jayhawks' only offense. Kyle Tucker's one of the best punters and should see plenty of action with all the 3 and outs the offense will put up.
Return Game: D - Kansas needs to find a consistent returner to replace Charles Gordon

What the Jayhawks must do to win:
1. Run the ball - This will be the strongest area of Kansas's offensive game, and they need to rely on it.
2. Get consistency in the passing game - getting teams out of an 8 man front will help this team tremendously. The question is, do they have the talent?
3. Find a QB and stick with it - Kerry Meier or Adam Barmann. Settle on one. Don't keep switching.

Projection: Hard to see their offense being any better than last year. That will sink them down to the bottom of the Big 12. 3-9 overall, 1-7 in conference

The Skinny: Gary Pinkel simply can't be trusted as a coach. Two years ago, they were supposed to contend for the North title, but an early season loss to Troy shattered their confidence, and 5 straight losses in conference cost them a bowl game. Last year, others picked Missouri as a dark horse in a weak Big 12 North, but managed only a mediocre 7-5 record and lost to New Mexico out of conference. Both of those years, Missouri had it's best QB talent ever in Brad Smith.

This year, Missouri is once again a dark horse to contend in the Big 12 North, never mind that Chase Daniels is now the starter in place of the now-graduated Smith.

To quote The Who, "We won't get fooled again."

Sure they have talent around Daniels, but Pinkel can never put that talent into a championship package, and his coaching will probably cost them a lot games that they would otherwise win. Brutal road trips to Texas A&M, Texas Tech and Nebraska won't help things.

Easy W's: Murray St., Ohio, Kansas
Close, but probably a win: none
Close, but probably a loss: Ole Miss, at New Mexico, Colorado, Kansas State
Definite L's: at Iowa State, at Nebraska, at Texas A&M, at Texas Tech, Oklahoma

Position Ratings
QB: C+ - Daniels may have been a top 10 QB recruit, but let's see him perform.
RB: C - Marcus Woods has not been asked to carry the ball 20 times a game over the course of the season, which is what he'll have to do if he's not splitting carries with Tony Temple again this year.
WR: B - Fitting that they play for a team from the "Show Me State", because this recieving corps need to show people that there's a 1,000 yard reciever in the bunch. The talent is there, though
TE: B- - Martin Rucker is the team's leading returning reciever with only 567 yards recieving.
OL: C - Sure, they can run block, but can they protect Daniels?

DL: B+ - Could be one of the best defensive lines, but it's a wait and see process.
LB: C - nice players in Dedrick Harringtion and Marcus Bacon, but not a whole lot of depth
CB: C- - Lost both starters, and nickel and dime corners are very green.
S: C- - David Overstreet led the team in tackles last year. It's great to see that he can tackle, but you don't want your safties to be at the top of the tackling board.

Kicking Game: C - Adam Crossett has the leg, but needs to work on his accuracy
Return Game: F - This unit was averaging 19.6 kickoff yards per return, and they need to improve

What the Tigers must do to win:
1. Receivers have to catch the ball and make plays - Missouri's receivers have speed, but they weren't called upon to get open and help the QB out when Brad Smith could run out of trouble. If it's third and long and the blitz is on, will they give Daniels an open target?
2. Pinkel must get out of the way of his talent - The head coach is prone to folding in big games and dropping games he shouldn't.
3. Improve on defense - The preview magazines say this defense has potential. Prove it.

Projection: Don't believe the hype. 3-9 overall, 1-7 in conference

Kansas State
The Skinny: Yes, Bill Snyder is gone, but his legacy remains in the non-conference schedule he gave new head coach Ron Prince. Prince wasted no time in following Snyder's old formula of loading up on JUCO talent, and Kansas State should have a decent first season under their new head coach

Easy W's: Illinois St., FAU, Oklahoma St.
Close, but probably a win: Marshall, at Colorado, at Missouri
Close, but probably a loss: at Kansas, at Baylor
Definite L's: Louisville, Texas, Iowa St., Nebraska

Position Ratings
QB: C- - Allan Evridge will probably hold down the fort until Josh Freeman is ready.
RB: B+ - Thomas Clayton will be one of the Big XII's best feature backs.
WR: B - all 3 recievers average 14 or more yards per catch
TE: B+ - Rashaad Norwood doesn't get the ball thrown his way much, but he does make plays when he gets it.
OL: C - If this unit gels, it could be top-notch. If it doesn't, look out.

DL: C- - Need to get a better pass rush on the quarterback
LB: A - Brandon Archer will be all-Big 12 and the rest of the linebackers will follow his lead
CB: C - Lacking in experience, but they will be helped by Kansas State mixing in more "Tampa 2" coverages
S: B - They will have the talent to help the corners, but will it be enough?

Kicking Game: D - Jeff Snodgrass has a strong leg, but is only 10 of 16 on field goals. ouch.
Return Game: B - Yamon Figurs could be one of the conference's best returners.

What the Wildcats must do to win:
1. Get a consistent pass rush - The line needs to do better than 1.9 sacks per game.
2. Get turnovers - K-State only had 8 picks last year and a turnover margin of -6
3. Hand the ball to Thomas Clayton - Clayton averaged 4.6 yards/carry last year and K-State needs to feature him more.

Projection: 6-6 overall, 3-5 in conference, bowl eligible.

The Skinny: The past is the past. Former Boise State coach Dan Hawkins brings his high powered offense out of the WAC and into the Big 12. It takes at least a year to transition to a spread offense from a pro style one, but Colorado will be fun to watch this year while they make the transition.

Easy W's: Montana St., Baylor, Kansas
Close, but probably a win: Arizona St., Texas Tech, at Missouri
Close, but probably a loss: Colorado St.*, Iowa St., Kansas St., at Nebraska
Definite L's: at Georgia, at Oklahoma
* - at Invesco Field at Mile High, Denver

Position Ratings
QB: C - Well, James Cox won the starting job by a razor thin margin, but he'll probably thrive in Hawkins' pass-happy system
RB: A - Hugh Charles was a consistent runner and should provide balance immediately
WR: B - Blake Mackey and Dusty Sprague could put up huge numbers.
TE: D - A dropoff from Joel Klopfenstein's performance from last year, but the TE may get phased out of the offense anyway.
OL: A- - Led by Mark Fenton, this unit could be one of the best in the Big 12

DL: C- - Needs to develop a consistent pass rush
LB: B+ - still one of the best overall units in the Big 12
CB: B - The talent is there with the starters, and they're both experienced
S: B+ - J.J. Billingsley is the leader of the secondary

Kicking Game: A+ - Mason Crosby returns for one more year.
Return Game: F - they can't do any worse than 18.2 yards/kickoff return, can they?

What the Buffaloes must do to win:
1. Learn quickly - Hawkins' offense isn't rocket science, but it does take some time to get the hang of it.
2. Don't drop passes - offenses like this depend on high-percentage, catchable passes to set up other passes downfield.
3. Figure out more uses for Hugh Charles - If Hawkins isn't going to give Charles 25 carries a game, he needs to find other ways for him to get the football.

Projection: A lot of flash, and a lot of growing pains. 6-6 overall, 4-4 in conference, bowl eligible

Iowa State
The Skinny: Iowa State has improved every year the last three years. Two years ago, they were bowl eligible and came within a field goal of making the Big XII title game. Last year, they pulled off an upset of Iowa and beat Texas A&M and Colorado on the way to another bowl game. This year, 10 of the 11 offensive starters are back, including all 5 skill positions and quarterback Bret Meyer. The defense, however, is young and must improve in a hurry, but scoring your way to a bowl is not uncommon in this conference.

Easy W's: Toledo, UNLV, Northern Iowa, Kansas, at Kansas St, Missouri
Close, but probably a win: Texas Tech, at Colorado
Close, but probably a loss: at Oklahoma, Nebraska
Definite L's: at Iowa, at Texas

Position Ratings
QB: A+ - Bret Meyer has 2 years experience under his belt and is one of the leading returning passers
RB: C+ - Stevie Hicks was hurt by his offensive line last year
WR: A - Todd Blythe and Austin Flynn have a chemistry with Meyer
TE: B - The tight ends are decent when the ball is thrown their way
OL: B - The offensive line should be better after giving up 39 sacks last year

DL: B - Hey, when you've got a defensive tackle nicknamed "Big Play", don't expect the unit to give up many rushing yards.
LB: B - The talent is there, time will tell if they perform
CB: C+ - DeAndre Jackson is preseason All-Big XII, but it's a question of depth.
S: C- - lots and lots of inexperience all throughout the 2 deep

Kicking Game: C - If Bret Culberson can improve on his 20-26 FG performance, it would help. They are also breaking in a freshman punter.
Return Game: B - Jackson will handle kickoff return duties as well, Ryan Baum will be the primary punt returner

What the Cyclones must do to win:
1. Get better play from the offensive line - Better rushing numbers and lower sack numbers on offense will mean more wins.
2. Get turnovers - last year, Iowa State had a +14 turnover margin. A repeat performance in this category would build the defense's confidence.
3. Cut down on the miscues - While people expect young players to miss coverage assignments and make mistakes, this defense has to be rock solid from day 1.

Projection: Look for Iowa State to continue it's upward momentum. 8-4 overall, 5-3 conference, and bowl eligible.

The Skinny: Big Red Nation hasn't exactly handled the transition to a pro-style offense well. What they refused to see because they hated Callahan so much was that recruits are starting to come to Nebraska again to play football because it's still a name program and now, unlike the last 3 years under Frank Solich, it has an offense that will help get top recruits to the pros.

The time is right for Nebraska to make a comeback.

Easy W's: Louisiana Tech, Nicholls St., Troy
Close, but probably a win: Colorado, at Iowa State, at Texas A&M
Close, but probably a loss: Texas (twice)
Definite L's: at USC

Position Ratings
QB: A-* - Zac Taylor should have a breakout year.
RB: A - Top 10 recruit Marlon Lucky takes over the starting running back position
WR: A - The best WR unit in the North
TE: B - Matt Herian returns from injury to bolster this unit
OL: B- - Struggled last year, but should be better this year.

DL: A+ - The defensive ends both had double-digit tackles for loss.
LB: A - The backups could start at other Big 12 programs. Oh, and the 3 starters are pretty good too.
CB: A - Both CB starters have the size and speed that NFL scouts are looking for...
S: A - do both safety starters.

Kicking Game: A - Jordan Congdon was 2nd Team Big XII last year.
Return Game: A - Look for defensive standouts Tierre Green and Corntey Grixby to have great years.

* - This is not taking into account Sam Keller, who recently transferred from Arizona State. He'll probably have to sit out this year.

What the Huskers must do to win:
1. Better offensive line play - The sack numbers should improve now that this unit had a year to gel.
2. Turnovers are key - While the -2 turnover differential has more to do with the offensive mistakes, the defense does need to get more picks and fumble recoveries
3. Get Lucky - No matter what the offense, you still have to get good play from the running back position, and Marlon Lucky has the ability if he can just get some blocking up front.

Projection: If Nebraska fan is still complaining about Callahan after this year, then there's no help for them. Nebraska will retake the North. 10-3 overall , 7-1 in conference, Big 12 North champions.

All Big-XII First Team


Bret Meyer
Iowa St.


Tim Crowder


Adrian PetersonOklahoma


Frank Okam


Jamaal Charles


DeMarcus Granger


Matt Herian


Adam Carriker


Jarrett HicksTexas Tech


Robert Killibrew


Todd Blythe
Iowa St.


Zach Latimer


Billy Pittman


Corey McKeon


Justin Blalock


Rufus AlexanderOklahoma


Brian Daniels


D.J Wolfe


Mark FentonColorado


Tierre Green


Justin BlalockTexas


Michael Griffin


Corey Hilliard


Tarell Brown


Mason Crosby
Texas A&M


Daniel SepulvedaBaylor


Terrence Wheatley


DeAndre Jackson
Iowa St.
All-Big XII Second Team


Graham Harrell
Texas Tech


C.J. Ah You


Thomas Clayton
Kansas St.


Brent Curvey
Iowa State


Courtney Lewis
Texas A&M


Red Bryant
Texas A&M


Martellus Bennett
Texas A&M


Brian Robison


Joel Filani
Texas Tech
OLBBo Ruud


D'Juan Woods
MLBJustin Warren
Texas A&M


Malcolm Kelly


Jordon Dizon


Chris Messner


Brandon Archer
Kansas St.


Kirk Elder
Texas A&M


Reggie Smith


Lyle Sendlein


Melvin Bullitt
Texas A&M


Manuel RamirezTexas Tech


Jason Carter


Gabe Hall
Texas Tech


Antonio Huffman
Texas Tech


Jordan Congdon


Alex ReyesTexas Tech


Cortney Grixby


Aaron Ross

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